It has not escaped me that, although I entitled this blog the “Wisconsin Truth Project”, I do engage in rampant speculation. And I’m going to do it again today.
I hate New Year’s resolutions. I never make them, because there is no chance that I will hold to them. However, I do like to make predictions for the year ahead. This is especially fun when it comes to politics.
So here are some of my predictions for 2010…
In Wisconsin, Republicans will reclaim some of their mojo in state legislative races. Republicans will win back a majority in the State Senate, with Ed Thompson and Leah Vukmir delivering majority-status to the second most dysfunctional group of people in Madison (the most dysfunctional being Senate Democrats). In addition, Van Waangard shocks John Lehman to give the GOP an 18th seat. Pat Kreitlow soundly defeats Terry Moulton 53-47 and Russ Decker survives the scare of his political lifetime, defeating Pam Galloway by less than 500 votes.
Decker, however, does not retain his post as leader of the Senate Democrats and is defeated by Kreitlow, ushering in a new post-Chvala era for that caucus.
Republicans will be less successful in the State Assembly due to Brett Davis’ decision to run for Lieutenant Governor. Ultimately, Davis’ decision will cause Assembly Republicans to fall one single seat short of a majority, 50-49. The GOP picks up the open Jeff Wood seat and manages to knock off a few incumbents, but continued problems in their own swing seats force them to commit resources where they had hoped to be safe. In the process, Republicans will lose at least two more incumbents.
As a result, Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan narrowly holds his top post despite an effort from disaffected Assembly Democrats to depose him.
State Senate Upset Special: Republican Van Waangard defeats incumbent John Lehman.
State Assembly Upset Special: Republican Vicki Milbrath defeats incumbent Andy Jorgensen.
For State Treasurer (like anyone cares about that), Dawn Marie Sass’ nepotism scandal costs her the election. Republican (fill in the blank) takes her down easily.
Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen cruises to victory with nearly 60% of the vote. Voters not only reward Van Hollen for a decent first term as AG, but also seize the opportunity to show its anger with the DNR by mercifully euthanizing the political career of the Democratic candidate, former DNR Secretary Scott Hassett.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Neumann ignores the long odds against him and stays in the race until the primary, where he is soundly defeated by Scott Walker – as expected. Neumann, however, severely damages Walker in a massive ad campaign against Walker’s record in the State Assembly and as Milwaukee County Executive. Neumann does not run as an independent and endorses Walker after the primary.
As a result, Walker limps into the general election campaign where state Democrats unleash a negative TV ad assault that will make the Jim Doyle/Greater Wisconsin Committee smear campaign against Mark Green in 2006 look like ads for the Girl Scouts of America. Walker out-hustles Democrat Tom Barrett on the ground but is simply unable to counter the $20 million TV raping, and Barrett wins the race for governor. Shortly thereafter, I move to Colorado, Virginia, Texas or somewhere else where voters actually get it.
In Washington, Team Pelosi sustains a substantial, but manageable, loss of about 25 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In northeast Wisconsin, Roger Roth out-works the 75 other Republicans running in the primary to replace Congressman Steve Kagen and pulls out a surprisingly wide margin of victory. Roth puts the race on the national radar but Democrats, consumed with other priority races, overlook it until the very end – when it is too late. Roth, not the polarizing figure that John Gard was, pulls out a 53-47 win against Kagen.
On the other side of the state, State Senator Dan Kapanke loses the interest of national Republicans as missteps and sloppiness doom him to a disappointing finish, and Ron Kind holds the 3rd district easily – but not quite reaching 60%.
Not surprisingly, Russ Feingold easily beats Terrence Wall for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. Ugh. Feingold is one of the most disingenuous senators in a chamber full of frauds and fakes. Wisconsin voters buy his fiscal conservatism shtick even though he doesn’t vote that way when it really matters (see his vote for the bailout scam, among others). Nonetheless, his weirdness resonates in a state that likes to elect weirdos.
Overall, the GOP will disappoint in its efforts to retake substantial ground in the U.S. Senate. Republicans will score some high-profile wins as against long-time incumbents (such as Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas) and some encouraging holds (Rob Portman in Ohio), but will only gain two or three seats overall – barely enough to sustain a filibuster.
This post is way more arduous than I had initially expected. I’m going to regroup and come back another time.
I completely agree with the bold pick of Roger Roth’s upset over Kagen in Wisconsin 8th.
With that prediction for Dan Kapanke and several people including myself who have talked to him, and all of us being less than impressed, I plan to vote for Mike Krsiean for Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district.
I also plan to vote for Rob Taylor for Senate.
These two are undoubtedly the most constitutionally minded and principled candidates that I have met.
[...] little over a year ago, I offered a set of predictions for 2010. Being a fan of accountability, I wanted to see how I did and publish the [...]