A little over a year ago, I offered a set of predictions for 2010. Being a fan of accountability, I wanted to see how I did and publish the results.
RIGHT: Republicans will win back a majority in the State Senate…
WRONG/RIGHT: …with Ed Thompson and Leah Vukmir delivering majority-status…
RIGHT: Van Waangard shocks John Lehman…
WRONG: Pat Kreitlow soundly defeats Terry Moulton 53-47…
VERY WRONG: …Russ Decker survives the scare of his political lifetime, defeating Pam Galloway by less than 500 votes.
UBER WRONG: Republicans will be less successful in the State Assembly due to Brett Davis’ decision to run for Lieutenant Governor. Ultimately, Davis’ decision will cause Assembly Republicans to fall one single seat short of a majority, 50-49.
WRONG: …Assembly Republicans will lose at least two more incumbents.
NOT EVEN CLOSE: Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan narrowly holds his top post despite an effort from disaffected Assembly Democrats to depose him. (Just wow.)
WRONG (but almost right): Assembly Upset Special - Republican Vicki Milbrath defeats incumbent Andy Jorgensen.
RIGHT: Dawn Marie Sass’ nepotism scandal costs her the election. Republican (fill in the blank) takes her down easily.
RIGHT: Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen cruises to victory with nearly 60% of the vote.
RIGHT: Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Neumann ignores the long odds against him and stays in the race until the primary, where he is soundly defeated by Scott Walker – as expected.
RIGHT: Neumann does not run as an independent and endorses Walker after the primary.
WRONG: Walker limps into the general election campaign where state Democrats unleash a negative TV ad assault that will make the Jim Doyle/Greater Wisconsin Committee smear campaign against Mark Green in 2006 look like ads for the Girl Scouts of America. Walker out-hustles Democrat Tom Barrett on the ground but is simply unable to counter the $20 million TV raping, and Barrett wins the race for governor.
WRONG: Team Pelosi sustains a substantial, but manageable, loss of about 25 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Only 38 seats off.)
WRONGEST OF ALL: Roger Roth out-works the 75 other Republicans running in the primary to replace Congressman Steve Kagen and pulls out a surprisingly wide margin of victory. Roth puts the race on the national radar but Democrats, consumed with other priority races, overlook it until the very end – when it is too late. Roth, not the polarizing figure that John Gard was, pulls out a 53-47 win against Kagen.
BASICALLY WRONG: State Senator Dan Kapanke loses the interest of national Republicans as missteps and sloppiness doom him to a disappointing finish, and Ron Kind holds the 3rd district easily – but not quite reaching 60%.
WAY WRONG: Russ Feingold easily beats Terrence Wall for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate.
RIGHT/WRONG: Overall, the GOP will disappoint in its efforts to retake substantial ground in the U.S. Senate. Republicans will score some high-profile wins as against long-time incumbents (such as Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas) and some encouraging holds (Rob Portman in Ohio), but will only gain two or three seats overall – barely enough to sustain a filibuster. (GOP gains in the U.S. Senate should have been at or near 10. Gaining six seats was nice, but a huge disappointment.)
